Jason Sandford
Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.
We’re heading into the homestretch, the weekend before Tuesday’s big Ashvegas City Council election. It’s time for us to do a little thinking out loud to lay the groundwork for final predictions.
The Joe and Terry show
Everything revolves around the race for mayor, with council members Joe Dunn and Terry Bellamy duking it out. With woefully low turnout in the primary, voters sent a signal that these candidates have done little to excite.
Bellamy had the more energized base. It showed, and that sense of forward movement has continued. She hasn’t made any mistakes. Right now, she looks solid.
We thought Dunn would strike a cord with the local electorate following the primary, but he’s failed to impress. In speaking engagements and forums, he’s good but not great. His television ads are right on, but he started them about two weeks too late. Right now, Dunn’s a bit of a dud.
Still, we think it’s going to be a damn close race. And if Dunn can get people out to the polls Tuesday, he can win. No doubt – it’s all about the turnout.
The power of Mum
Often, city council races are races featuring specific “tickets” of candidates who run together. This year, it’s Dunn and councilman Carl Mumpower running together, with a ticket of Bellamy, Holly Jones and Robin Cape on the other side.
If Dunn goes down, does that mean Mumpower’s out, too? We think it’s likely. Jones and Cape will be strong, with Chris Pelly and Bryan Freeborn right behind. Let’s look at Pelly and Freeborn for a minute:
Talk about momentum – nobody’s got it going on like Freeborn. He’s raising money, getting volunteers organized. He’s picking up endorsements and generally working his ass off. We think Freeborn wins the award for the overall best-run campaign this year, no matter what happens. (Cape, who we know is a hard campaigner, has been more static and we’re not sure why – a little over-confidence setting in?)
Despite Freeborn’s late turbo charge, Pelly remains a force. He finished fourth in the council primary vote, and the liberal Democrats seem to be forming up behind him, not Freeborn. But we’re not feeling any energy out of the Pelly camp.
So, assuming Mumpower gets tossed, which neighborhood will win – Pelly and his Haw Creek ‘hood or Freeborn and his West Ashvegas crew? Right now, it’s too close to call.
The X-factor
The “progressive” forces remain poised to seize control of Ashvegas City Council. The X-factor here is that if Bellamy wins, the new council would appoint someone to fill her council seat because her regular term isn’t up. In 2000, council picked the fourth-highest vote-getter.
This year, it may not be that easy, despite the precedent. Let’s say Bellamy wins mayor and Jones, Cape and Freeborn take council seat victories, with Mumpower finishing fourth. Our new council would be Bellamy, Jones, Cape, Freeborn, plus Brownie Newman and Jan Davis. There’s no way in hell that crew is appointing Mumpower – a Republican – to a council seat.
They’ll go for Pelly or Keith Thomson, or just open it up and take applications. It should be fun.
Revising my earlier prognostications after having met the earnest Robin Cape and been disappointed by the Freeborn follow through:
It’s Bellamy, for better or for worse. Joe Dunn comes across as a guy with less leadership than Charlie Worley, and, you’re right, if Terry can continue mistake-free while Dunn bores ’em to tears, then she’s #1.
Is Holly Jones the lock everyone thinks she is? Probably, yes.
But if I’m a Dunn/Mump voter, and I’ve got my other two council votes left and nothing to look at but a load of libs, do I cast those votes or not?
So it’s….
Bellamy 52%
Dunn 48%
Jones
Mumpower
Cape
And the appointment for Bellamy’s seat goes to…
….um….give me a minute…er….
Freeborn.
Great election commentary, Ash. Your logic is sound except for the assumption that low turnout and this particular slate of candidates are correlated. Low turnout’s the way it’s been. Doesn’t matter who’s running. Off year, local primary elections don’t create blockbusters.
The people who are paying attention will vote. The rest won’t. So the question becomes who’s paying more attention. Congressional and Executive Branch Republicans are eating up the news programs, so I wonder how many folks look at old Joe Dunn, see an old Republican, associate Republicanism with corruption, and don’t go out to vote?
And, on the other side of the tracks, how many people have been waiting an age and an hour to see Asheville with socially conscious leadership? The Mayoral seat is largely ceremonial, but a town’s mayor says a lot about it. More important is the coveted empty seat created by the winner.
Keep up the goodness.
Crosspost to BlogAsheville?
A Mumpowerless Council?? Oh, be still my heart!!!!!
Sadly though, it ain’t gonna happen. The progressives seem to be solidly lined up behind Holly Jones and Robin Cape, but their third vote seems to be split between Pelly, Freeborn, and Thomson. Meanwhile the CIBO crowd, stunned by having already lost control on Council in the primary, will probably turn out to try to cut their losses. With Mumpower as their only acceptable Council candidate they vote for him only which gives him a leg up over the divided progressives. Barring a complete meltdown of the CIBO faction it is hard to see how he loses, although I can dream, can’t I?
Will the CIBO crowd be able to pull it off for Dunn? That’s a little harder to say but if they do that puts Terry Bellamy in a potentially more powerful position than if she wins the Mayor’s seat as it would be Jones, Cape, and Newman vs. Dunn, Mumpower, and Davis, with Bellamy firmly taking on the role of the centrists swing vote.
If Terry wins (and she’s got my vote) that does make the race to fill her vacant seat interesting to be sure. Four years ago Holly Jones and Brownie Newman said that if they won they would support the fourth place vote getter to take the seat that would be vacated by Charles Worley or Brain Peterson (who were both running for mayor) even if it were not someone they supported in the election (which turned out to be Jim Eliis) Mumpower refused to make that pledge. This year Jones is leaving her options open on that same question (see this weeks Mountian Xpress), but I think it is safe to say that if, by chance, Mumpower finishes fourth the Jones, Cape, and Newman faction will strenuously resists any and all political pressure to appoint him even if they have to go back four years and point out his refusal to commit to himself to such an action.
In any case one thing is for certain. With CIBO losing control of Council they will come out swinging for 2007 and Brownie Newman is going to be in their crosshairs with a vengeance from day one. I sure hope he is ready.
What liberal Dems are getting behind Pelly?
So who are you calling for mayor now, Ash? I seem to recall laying a small wager with you on this.
Also, don’t necessarily think that Mum is out if Dunn is. Because the vote is split among six as opposed to two in the Council races, he has a good chance of of receiving enough votes to push him into one of the three open council seats. Sadly. What could be really interesting is if Terry wins Mayor while Holly, Robin, and Carl win the top three council seats. Then the battle for whom to appoint to Terry’s seat will be something.
I think that’s my call. Terry, Holly, Robin, and Carl. Gotta love the chicks!