Jason Sandford
Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.
Here are a couple of insightful comments from you, loyal readers:
Edgy Mama
So who are you calling for mayor now, Ash? I seem to recall laying a small wager with you on this.
Also, don’t necessarily think that Mum is out if Dunn is. Because the vote is split among six as opposed to two in the Council races, he has a good chance of of receiving enough votes to push him into one of the three open council seats. Sadly. What could be really interesting is if Terry wins Mayor while Holly, Robin, and Carl win the top three council seats. Then the battle for whom to appoint to Terry’s seat will be something.
I think that’s my call. Terry, Holly, Robin, and Carl. Gotta love the chicks!
Screwy
Revising my earlier prognostications after having met the earnest Robin Cape and been disappointed by the Freeborn follow through:
It’s Bellamy, for better or for worse. Joe Dunn comes across as a guy with less leadership than Charlie Worley, and, you’re right, if Terry can continue mistake-free while Dunn bores ’em to tears, then she’s #1.
Is Holly Jones the lock everyone thinks she is? Probably, yes.
But if I’m a Dunn/Mump voter, and I’ve got my other two council votes left and nothing to look at but a load of libs, do I cast those votes or not?
So it’s….
Bellamy 52%
Dunn 48%
Jones
Mumpower
Cape
And the appointment for Bellamy’s seat goes to…
….um….give me a minute…er….
Freeborn.
Great election commentary, Ash. Your logic is sound except for the assumption that low turnout and this particular slate of candidates are correlated. Low turnout’s the way it’s been. Doesn’t matter who’s running. Off year, local primary elections don’t create blockbusters.
The people who are paying attention will vote. The rest won’t. So the question becomes who’s paying more attention. Congressional and Executive Branch Republicans are eating up the news programs, so I wonder how many folks look at old Joe Dunn, see an old Republican, associate Republicanism with corruption, and don’t go out to vote?
And, on the other side of the tracks, how many people have been waiting an age and an hour to see Asheville with socially conscious leadership? The Mayoral seat is largely ceremonial, but a town’s mayor says a lot about it. More important is the coveted empty seat created by the winner.
Keep up the goodness.
Crosspost to BlogAsheville?
From RoIn:
A Mumpowerless Council?? Oh, be still my heart!!!!!
Sadly though, it ain’t gonna happen. The progressives seem to be solidly lined up behind Holly Jones and Robin Cape, but their third vote seems to be split between Pelly, Freeborn, and Thomson. Meanwhile the CIBO crowd, stunned by having already lost control on Council in the primary, will probably turn out to try to cut their losses. With Mumpower as their only acceptable Council candidate they vote for him only which gives him a leg up over the divided progressives. Barring a complete meltdown of the CIBO faction it is hard to see how he loses, although I can dream, can’t I?
Will the CIBO crowd be able to pull it off for Dunn? That’s a little harder to say but if they do that puts Terry Bellamy in a potentially more powerful position than if she wins the Mayor’s seat as it would be Jones, Cape, and Newman vs. Dunn, Mumpower, and Davis, with Bellamy firmly taking on the role of the centrists swing vote.
If Terry wins (and she’s got my vote) that does make the race to fill her vacant seat interesting to be sure. Four years ago Holly Jones and Brownie Newman said that if they won they would support the fourth place vote getter to take the seat that would be vacated by Charles Worley or Brain Peterson (who were both running for mayor) even if it were not someone they supported in the election (which turned out to be Jim Eliis) Mumpower refused to make that pledge. This year Jones is leaving her options open on that same question (see this weeks Mountian Xpress), but I think it is safe to say that if, by chance, Mumpower finishes fourth the Jones, Cape, and Newman faction will strenuously resists any and all political pressure to appoint him even if they have to go back four years and point out his refusal to commit to himself to such an action.
In any case one thing is for certain. With CIBO losing control of Council they will come out swinging for 2007 and Brownie Newman is going to be in their crosshairs with a vengeance from day one. I sure hope he is ready.
To RoIn’s point and to clarify my previous comment: I wouldn’t consider the MOM endorsement an alliance (nor most others; the notable exception being when a candidate endorses another).
All of the candidates have been endorsed by somebody. Thompson hasn’t gotten a nod from the others endorsed by MOM. Jones leans Pelly. Cape leans Freeborn. Thomson stands alone.
I find it interesting how many groups are trying to frame the definitive progressive alliance. There are several ways it can play out, which I think we’ve all noted here. A lot does depend on the numbers in core precincts for each of the candidates, but I go back to the ground campaign for tipping the scale.
I am a die-hard Dem with a dilemma. I cannot vote for Bellamy — personal and political reasons, mainly that I know for a fact that I can’t trust her — but I am pained to vote for Joe. He is dumb, but sincere. I have seen her tell what my dead mother called “a tale” to get herself out of looking bad. Just yesterday, I talked to someone else who was able to lay out one of her tales word for word. At least she’s a bad liar.
Plus, she’s as conservative Christian as Dunn and probably as pro-life and anti-gay rights. Neither of which matters locally, since City Council has no power over either, but still… Anyway, I will NOT sit out the vote Tuesday, but this is a helluva choice. I don’t want to dis a sistah, but my personal experience with her since 1999 says she hasn’t earned my vote. But Joe IS dumb….
Thomson does have the support of the Match Out Mountains (matchourmountains.org) group which organized in the 2003 elections to counter the CIBO pac that had pretty much ran the board in 2001. This year they also back Jones and Cape as well as Bellamy for Mayor. Two years ago they went with Newman, Bellamy, and Pelly, and got two out of three. In addition, Thomson also has the endorsement of Buncombe County Commissioner David Gantt, although I doubt any of this will be enough to do much for him other than boost his name recognition for a possible second run two years from now.
I suspect that Freeborn does have a better ground game than Pelly at this point, although that is based only on a gut feeling. Pelly has the advantage of a bit more name recognition from his run two years ago and his ties with the Coalition of Asheville Neighborhoods. In the primary Freeborn’s strength was both west Asheville and downtown, Pelly’s was east Asheville and north Asheville giving him a bit of an edge, I would think, simply because east + north = more votes than west + downtown. Still, with fewer than 400 votes separating them in the primary it probably now is all about what everyone in a political campaign covets: “the big mo.”
If Bellamy wins the race that begins for the appointment to her seat will be interesting to be sure! If, by some mighty satisfying chance, Mumpower finishes fourth there is absolutely no way that Jones, Cape, Newman (or Freeborn or Pelly) back him and I’d think it would be a hoot if that faction passed him over for the fifth place finisher. That would not happen, but I imagine that after serving with him on Council that both Holly Jones and Brownie Newman have lots of fun dreaming about giving him the finger like that.
Incidentally, I understand that Brownie Newman has endorsed Jones, Cape, and Pelly. Thus we have another example of progressives backing Jones and Cape, but splitting that third vote.
This’ll be fun. I do kinda hope for Mumpower in the 4th spot just to watch the scrambling. And, I agree with RoIn– if Dunn takes a hit and Mumpower gets the cold shoulder there will be some serious mud flying at the next available opportunity.
I think it’s all about turnout at this point. I agree with Screwy that you can’t totally chalk up the turnout to the slate – off years always lag, especially. It’ll be interesting to see who came out for early voting when it ends today.
So, the question is: Who’s got the strongest ground campaign and who can get the most folks motivated in an off year? For Jones, Cape and Mumpower, it’s about their base. For the other three it’s a combination of their base and the second and third votes they garner. Thompson is pretty much the lone ranger – none of the other candidates are talking about him much and he’s steered clear of any alliances as far as I can see. Freeborn, as you point out has gained momentum and is tagged by many as the logical carry on to a Jones or Cape vote. You can bet he’ll be working it ‘til the last vote is counted. Pelly’s gained the most lately simply by being the guy on the “other team” that Mumpower and Dunn would least mind having on board, rather than under his own momentum.
The interesting vote is the one that people cast last — not who they came to vote for but who they’re also voting for.