Taylor may be vulnerable, but he won’t lose in November

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

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In a front page Sunday story, the N.Y. Times declares that more and more Republican U.S. House seats appear to ripening into real contests for Democrats to snatch. The story quotes strategists from both parties to make the case that Dems are succeeding in making the November elections a referendum on Bush, a “nationalization” of individual races. And the story quotes polling experts as saying that dissatisfaction with a do-nothing Congress is at record highs, even surpassing poll numbers seen in 1994 when Republicans swept to power.

The story mentions Western North Carolina’s own U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor of Brevard. It lists Taylor’s 11th Congressional District as one of 10 Republican-held districts to watch. The graphic notes that Taylor won with 55 percent of the vote in 2004.

We’re here to bring a little reality back into the picture. Is Taylor vulnerable? Certainly. It’s an election. Anything can happen. But he’s not going to lose in November. We’ll tell you why in just a minute. First, here’s the story:

“To date, the battle over Congress has been defined by a conflict between two forces. On one hand, there is abundant polling data suggesting that voters are looking for a change after six years of Republican rule.

“The problem for Democrats, however, is that the process by which lawmakers draw Congressional boundary lines has had the effect of at least mathematically putting a vast majority of districts off-limits to Democrats searching to knock out incumbents, pending the kind of electoral wave Democrats have sought.

“As races across the country suddenly began popping up on lists of contests in play — Representative Richard W. Pombo of California, Charles H. Taylor of North Carolina, the seat held by Henry J. Hyde, the Illinois Republican who is retiring — some analysts are saying that that wave appears to be taking form.”

The story does point out a couple of major factors working against Democrats. As mentioned above, there’s redistricting. There’s also money – Republicans are pouring money into these contested races, while Democrats have been spending on “party building.”

Now, let’s look at what’s happening in the mountains. Taylor faces a challenge from Heath Shuler, a former Swain County high school football hero who went on to play at Tennessee and then, briefly, in the NFL. So, yeah, he’s local and he’s got some name recognition.

Shuler’s difficulty in trying to unseat Taylor is that, on key issues, he’s too much like Taylor. Shuler’s playing field is a district with more registered Dems than Repubs, but a district Taylor has held for eight terms. In a district where you’re fighting for a small number of swing voters, you’ve got to distinguish yourself. That’s particularly true for a challgenger facing an incumbent in the majority party that has amassed a significant amount of power in Washington.

Who knows what the landscape will look like five months from now. But we don’t see the playing field expanding much for Shuler.

Here’s the full N.Y. Times story.