Jason Sandford
Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.
Scroll down a post or two and you’ll read Ashvegas’ primary predictions. See today that Ashvegas was 100 percent correct in said predictions. That’s right – a perfect record. We don’t want to brag or anything, but we kick ass.
Now sit at Ashvegas’ feet and learn more…
Money and mudslinging
It was a critical mass, indeed, that decided Tuesday that it had enough of Mayor Charles Worley and kicked the friendly but ineffective politico to the curb. Councilwoman Terry Bellamy was the big winner, again as we properly prognosticated, and she’ll face her fellow councilman, Doctor (wink, wink) Joe Dunn. You’re a good man, Charlie, but compared to the black-and-white contrast of Bellamy and Dunn, you’re brown and out.
What’s next? We’re picking Dunn to be crowned mayor in November. That’s right. We said Mayor Joe Dunn. “But Ashvegas,” y’all are saying with breathless indignation, “Terry was tops in the tally and the progressives all did really well and Joe’s a nutbag and …”
Zip it. Why? Because it was a critical mass that voted Tuesday, but it was far from a mandate. A paltry 17 percent of registered voters spoke by casting a ballot. That’s less than 14,000 of the city’s 70,000 registered voters.
That leaves some 56,000 doors to knock on, e-mails to send and phone calls to make to get people into a voting booth next month. Dunn knows this. And his somewhat sleepy campaign will wake up, get an injection of cash from some soft supporters and start busting ass.
You can also expect the television advertising blitz to begin. And you can expect to see some mudslinging start. Soon. More on that later.
Bloc party
Voters will choose Dunn over Bellamy because voters like to mix things up. They’ll see Dunn, a Republican, balancing a Democratic bloc that’s forming. Because here’s what else happened Tuesday: Councilwoman Holly Jones won the top spot among the six council candidates moving on for three spots on council. Newcomer Robin Cape was second. Councilman Carl Mumpower was third.
Jones, Mumpower and Cape will win in November. The top three in the primary always go on to victory in November. No disrespect to Chris Pelly and Bryan Freeborn (who is running a smart campaign); that’s just the way it goes.
The Democratic bloc will be Jones, Bellamy (because she’ll retain her council seat after losing the nasty mayoral race), Brownie Newman and Cape. They’ll rule over Dunn and fellow Republican Mumpower, as well as like-minded businessman Jan Davis.
The Joneses and Newmans are calling themselves “progressives” these days. And as we’ve said here before, this city’s “progressives” have been dying to taste victory since last year’s bitter presidential-year defeat. They’re also starting to get freaked out about the explosion of high-rise condos and other development blasting across our fair mountains.
Will they be able to follow up on their promise of installing change? Exactly what is their vision for Asheville? Guess we’ll know in about four weeks.
Ash,
100 percent correct? How hard could it be since you were probably one of the few who bothered to turn up to vote? WOXL was predicting 30 percent turnout and even that figure is unacceptable.
I’m guessing you’re no big fan of Brownie’s, Ash. What gives?
EM – yes, i think you’re right. that was the year Brownie lied on his resume and got hammered by a negative ad that made fun of his “wacko environmentalist” stance – some old college writing where he said there shouldn’t be any roads, or some such nonsense.
Okay, perhaps I’m thinking of Brownie’s first run for council. In which case, he was fourth and then didn’t make it through the general?
Good insights all around, y’all.
From my recent post at BlogAsheville:
“So there you have it, Asheville. Bellamy v. Dunn in what promises to be one of the oddest, most polarized mayoral races in city history.
The Council seats will be as hotly contested, but not nearly as contentious. Holly Jones will likely retain her seat, leaving two chairs for the other five candidates. BlogAsheville isn’t in the business of advocating for a particular candidate, but Screwy Hoolie is in the business of tossing out baseless prognostications. Here’s one blogger’s call:
Bellamy by a whisker for mayor.
Jones in with ease.
Mumpy will get the Dunn voters and come in second.
The last seat will be a dogfight between Cape, Freeborn, and Pelly. Three friendlier dogs you’ll never meet, but it’s going to be tight. I’m calling it for Freeborn.”
Worley’s voters will move to Dunn, and Branyon’s voters (after cursing the system) will move to Bellamy – this makes it a 52% – 48% victory for Bellamy.
I am, of course, just guessing, but the numbers add up.
My question is, how long before the race card get played?
Newman finished first in the 2003 Primary ahead of Bellamny but slipped to second place in the General.
With his often shoot from the hip, in your face style I’m not sure Dunn has the temperament to be Mayor, and I think he is genuinely surprised that he’ll be running against Bellamy instead of Worely which means his entire game plan for the next four weeks has to be revamped. He must tread on much softer ground with Bellamy to prevent a backlash if he seems to negative.
Still, the development interests who have controls City Council for the past four years aren’t going to let him go without a fight. Even if they have already lost their majority they are going to do everything they can to keep Dunn and his evil twin Mumpower.
It had also been heavily speculated that Gene Ellison was going to endorse Dunn over Worely in the General, but might the kibosh be put on that now that Dunn will face off against Bellamy? Ellsion may still be inclined to personally support Dunn, but doing so publicly now might be tricky.
Also, didn’t Dunn once say that he was “embarrassed” by downtown Asheville and comparisons made between the city and San Francisco? Might these comments come back to haunt him, or might they merely serve as a “code” to many of his supporters?
Congrats on calling the shots correctly. And you’re wrong about Dunn (I hope). Yes, the mudslinging and the heavy politicking is about to begin, but Edgy Mama does not think Dunn has the gravitas or pull to beat Bellamy.
Also, didn’t Newman place fourth in the last primary, but won in the general? I can’t remember exactly, but…