Thought North Carolina mattered in the presidential race? Think again

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

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Asheville will play host to presidential contender Hillary Clinton Thursday night. Lots of folks have been saying that North Carolina would be a key state in the Democratic nomination battle between Clinton and *Barack Obama. But some political experts say the real battleground state next Tuesday will be Indiana, and not N.C.

Why? Because many see North Carolina as a foregone conclusion – it’s going for Obama.

Here’s the Scripps story:

Now the Democratic presidential race comes to North Carolina — sort of.

While this was once seen as a possible make-it-or-break-it state in the Democratic presidential nomination fight, it seems increasingly likely that the candidates will be paying more attention to Indiana, which also holds its primary May 6.

The reason is that polls suggest that Indiana is competitive, while North Carolina is not.

Sen. Barack Obama holds a 16-point lead in North Carolina, and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has a two-point lead in Indiana, according to an average of polls compiled by the political Web site Real Clear Politics.

Clinton has announced plans to campaign in Indiana three of the next four days. She will be in North Carolina on Thursday, stumping in Jacksonville, Fayetteville and Asheville. Obama has yet to announce plans to return this week. But Tuesday night, Obama was in Evansville, Ind., with his wife, Michelle, at a campaign event featuring rock musician John Mellencamp.

North Carolina’s second-fiddle status is already evident. Obama and Clinton have each spent only one day in North Carolina this month. The state Democratic Party canceled a debate proposed for Raleigh on Sunday after Obama declined to participate.

A month ago, North Carolina looked like the bigger prize. It is the largest state to hold a primary after Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary. North Carolina will award 115 pledged delegates, while Indiana will award 72.

But with Clinton finding it difficult to make inroads in the Tar Heel state, Indiana is shaping up as the bigger battleground.

“There is a pattern in the presidential campaign,” said Bill Carrick, a Los Angeles-based political strategist who managed Dick Gephardt’s 1988 presidential campaign. “Clinton has gotten into cherry-picking states. Some of it is driven by politics and some of it by finances.

“The Clinton campaign will do everything to downplay North Carolina because they don’t think they will do well. They will emphasize Indiana, where they think they will do better.”