Jason Sandford
Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.
It’s time, once again, to talk Asheville City Council. And talk predictions. With Tuesday’s primary, we’ll cull the field a little and start getting down to business.
As usual in an off-year election, the races have been fairly quiet. At least from the outside looking in. In talking with a number of candidates, I know they see it differently. They’ve been working their tails off, and they’ve been following some insider twists and turns most of us have ignored. (He said what at the Democratic Women’s Club meeting?) Some candidates have been running hard for nine months or longer, so they’re more than ready for votes to be cast.
Here’s my prediction for the top six finishers who will compete in November for the the three open seats on City Council. This list is my prediction for order of finish, as well. That’s important, because the primary election order of finish is a pretty darn good predictor of the order of finish for the general election. I’m not going bother with the race for mayor because Mayor Terry Bellamy has basically already won.
My list is not an endorsement – just me and my best guess.
For Asheville City Council, in order of finish:
Kelly Miller
Esther Manheimer
Cecil Bothwell
Gordon Smith
Carl Mumpower
J. Neal Jackson
That’s my list and I’m sticking with it. But I have questions: That sixth spot appears pretty open to me. Could another candidate sneak in aside from downtown business owner Jackson? Will Mumpower, the lone incumbent on my list, finish higher than I’ve listed? Are there any more running races for Miller to market to? How will the campaign of incumbent Robin Cape, who is running a write-in campaign and doesn’t show up on the primary ballot, affect the race in November?
FYI: You can hear the candidates talk about themselves over at WCQS.org here.
What are your thoughts? Leave your list in the comments on this post.
Congrats to Bruce for his accurate prediction. Guess experience with big league campaigns counts.
Damn, guess I should have bet a few bucks on my prognostications (see above).
Thus far, Mumpower has had no problem retaining a seat on council. I don’t think he’ll have trouble this time either. He may come in fourth in the primary, but I expect him to retain his seat in the general election. Activists make the most noise (and I likes me some noise), and all I seem to see around me is promotion for Miller and Bothwell. Of course, almost all of the very involved voters will go to the polls in the primary. On the other hand, plenty of regular citizens who don’t pay a great deal of attention will stay at home during the primary. Then they will show up on election day.
Name recognition goes a long way. Most voters are uninformed or underinformed about candidates and their stands on the issues, but pretty much everybody voting knows Carl’s name. That will help Carl a lot.
As for the primary
Kelly Miller
Manheimer
Bothwell
Smith
Mumpower
#6
Miller
Bothwell
Smith
Manheimer
Mumpower
The "tradition" of appointing the fourth highest vote getter to a vacancy only goes back to 2001 and has been done exactly twice — in 2001 when Jim Ellis was appointed, and in 2005 when Bryan Freeborn was appointed. In both cases the vacancies occurred when a Council member, (Charles Worley in 2001, and Terry Bellamy in 2005) in the middle of their four year term, was elected Mayor and the fourth highest vote getter from the election that created the vacancy was appointed. This issue arose when Council shifted from two year terms for Council and Mayor to four year staggered terms. The vacancy Councilman Miller was appointed to fill was created by a different election — one which occurred a year after the previous Council election.
Before 2001 vacancies, when they occurred, were filled by Council (without the interview process that occurred in 2008). Seldom, if ever, had the new Council member ever run for Council. This "tradition" is much older than the recent, only twice used, one.
Voters will fill this seat in November 2009.
"Heavy lifting" should have also included running for the office you hold in the first place. The method the current council used to "appoint" Miller to the council goes against the tradition of seating the candidate with the next highest number of votes in the previous election, regardless of whether that person was who the current members wanted. It is the "voters" who should decide some matters, isn’t it. Since I’ve opened up that subject, shouldn’t voters also cast ballots on who sits on the Asheville Board of Education?
Has anyone spotted twisted Republican candidate Ryan Croft at any campaign appearances?
Okay, I’m in. Here’s my best guess, in order:
Bothwell
Mumpower
Manheimer
Miller
Smith
Bowen
It’s a rigorous new workout program…
Good question. I define heavy policy lifting as someone who has actually been in the trenches championing public policy changes that improve Asheville’s quality of life. Experience matters. For example, I helped lead the effort to dedicate part of our occupancy tax in Buncombe County to establish the Tourism Product Development Fund (TPDF). The fund has granted over $12 million to a dozen non-profits in Asheville to help them complete nearly $100 million in major community capital projects enjoyed by residents and visitors alike. The Grove Arcade, John B. Lewis Soccer Complex, seed money for the Moogseum (the museum honoring Bob Moog), the Asheville Art Museum and Health Adventure expansions, and a loan guarantee to Orange Peel for their current expansion, are just several of the TPDF projects made possible by this policy change.
I was a founding board member of the Mountain Sports Festival and formed partnerships with local government to get the Festival off the ground. I’ve proudly served on the Pack Square Conservancy for nine years with one goal in mind; design and build the largest new sustainable urban park (with over 25,000 square feet of new green space) in the country w/o tapping into city tax dollars. Hope this adds context to just a slice of my policy experience here in Asheville…made possible by heavy policy lifting.
What exactly does "heavy policy lifting" mean?
Think there is some confusion here between broad and deep.
When it comes to which candidate has the broadest base of support, I encourage Ashvegas readers to review my Board of Election campaign finance reports which are available on line. Ten years of doing heavy policy lifting combined with a balanced, common sense approach to important issues is resonating with folks on all sides of the aisle. Next Tuesday will be an interesting day. The most important point to remember is to just be sure and get to the polls and vote.
Cecil’s broad and deep support is going to surprise some people. Having said that, here’s my prediction:
Bothwell
Smith
Manheimer
Miller
Mumpower
Jackson
Full disclosure: I’m Cecil’s communications guy.
I think you are fairly right on about your prediction. It is hard to really know how the primary will shake out. My thoughts are that the top two will be Bothwell and Manheimer. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th place spots (in no order) will be Mumpower, Smith, and Miller. 6th place is wide open. It could be Jenny Bowen for all we know.
My thoughts on Cape’s write in campaign is that no matter how Mumpower does in the primary he will retain a seat on council thanks to Cape’s effort to steal voter’s 3rd vote. I will be interested to see how many ballots come in with 3 votes for council plus a write-in.
Here is a question: Will there emerge slate’s of candidates in the general? So far only PRG is saying who not to vote for.
Miller is also an incumbent, although granted he was not elected.
I pick Esther Manheimer to finish in first place. She’s running with support across the spectrum — from Brownie Newman and the Sierra Club over to Jerry Sternburg and Chris Peterson taking in quite a few folks along the way in between.
At this point, it’s anybody’s guess – but I predict:
Miller
Smith
Bothwell
Manheimer
Mumpower
Jackson
Disclaimer: I’ve been volunteering for the Smith campaign, so I’m inclined to be more optimistic about his chances.
I will say this for Gordon: I’ve never known him to take on a project that he’s fail at.