Jason Sandford
Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.
Well, it’s that time of year again, folks. Election Day is right around the corner, and we know you’re all dying to know what’s going to happen on Tuesday. Here at Ashvegas, we’re just dumb enough to stick our necks out and make predictions.
So here’s our prognostication. One note – these are not endorsements. This is just us guessing what will happen on Tuesday, based on watching what’s been happening. So just like everything else, you can take it with a grain of salt. And we welcome your predictions.
So let’s get it on…
11th Congressional District
Heath Shuler has run a great campaign against U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor. Too bad for Shuler, a former football star, that he’ll come up just short of the goal line.
We all know that in the 11th District, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. Yet Taylor, a Republican, has won for 16 years with about a 5 to 8 percentage point edge. So it’s that group of voters that Taylor is fighting to hold and that Shuler is fighting to gain.
Shuler has made this election a question of which candidate posses “mountain values,” painting Taylor as corrupt and unethical. He had to, because on many key issues, he agrees with Taylor. Taylor has made this election a question of experience, while trying to lump Shuler in with ultra-liberal “national Democrats.”
There’s been little talk from either candidate about the issue that appears to be driving what some are calling a national wave breaking in favor of Democrats, and that issue is the war in Iraq and how it’s been conducted.
So the way we see it, Shuler gains a few percentage points on values. And he might get a couple more from general “change” voters. That makes this race a toss-up. It’s a dead heat.
So we’re down to trying to figure out who will actually go out and vote on Tuesday. Republicans in the mountains have been very organized, through church networks and local precincts. They toe the line in voting for their party. Democrats, as we’ve explained, haven’t stayed loyal to their party. Structually speaking, Dems have worked to improve the infrastructure of the party since the 2004 election, but they’re still not as together as the Republicans.
And that will be the difference in this race. We see it being decided by a few thousand votes. In fact, we may not have a definitive winner at the end of the night Tuesday.
It’s Taylor with 50.5 percent of the vote to Shuler’s 49.5 percent. Taylor wins.
Buncombe County sheriff
Sheriff Bobby Medford has been in office for 12 years, and voters will give him four more years on Tuesday. Despite the efforts of Democratic challenger Van Duncan, the Democratic wave at the top won’t translate into votes for him at this level.
Duncan ran a strong primary race, then ran out of gas. He stopped campaigning. Meantime, Medford has kept his election campaign positive. Voters won’t decide a change is needed here. Medford wins.
Buncombe County Clerk of Court
Bob Christy is the experienced incumbent, facing off against gadfly Don Yelton. It’s a no-brainer. Christy wins handily.
State Senate District 47
In a race that’s been dirtier than the Taylor-Shuler contest, Republican incumbent Keith Presnell is facing off against Joe Sam Queen, who used to hold this seat. This race has gotten nasty and personal. We see voters going back to Joe Sam, who wins.
Senate District 49
Another no-brainer. Martin Nesbitt, the Democrat with loads of pull and experience, knocks out perennial rabble-rouser R.L. Clark. Nesbitt wins easily.
Senate District 50
Incumbent Republican John Snow has taken a few lumps, but nobody knows his challenger, Ken McKim. Snow wins.
State House District 114
Incumbent Democrat Susan Fisher takes down challenger Mike Harrison. Fisher wins.
House District 115
Incumbent Democrat Bruce Goforth knocks out Eric Gorny. Goforth wins.
House District 116
In the other race that’s featured lots of nasty campaigning, Democrat Doug Jones and Republican are battling for an open seat, the seat vacated by retiring Rep. Wilma Sherrill, a Republican. Polling has shown this race to be close, but it’s really a district that’s been drawn to favor a Republican. Thomas gets a thin win.
Hendersonville height referendum
Hootverville City Council voted to increase the building height limitation in some parts of downtown to 80 feet, but a bunch of residents fearing rampant development didn’t like that decision. State lawmakers stepped in and got the issue put to a referendum.
Residents will vote to keep building height limited. The taller buildings won’t pass.
There are a host of other local races, but we’ll stick to just calling these biggies. So, what do you think?
thanks for everybody’s thoughts. i certainly won’t be surprised in Shuler wins….
I think Shuler may take Taylor this election. I’ve spoken with a few republicans who are tired of Taylor and want to see a change. And, as you said, there isn’t a lot of difference in their values, so I think Shuler has a solid chance (especially after the non-debate debacle).
Taylor loses in a close race, mainly do to his last minute rule bending at the debate. It was broadcast to a huge audience, and the reaction seemed to be very anti taylor when he changed locations and broke the rules, then tried to cover it up.
Shuler beats Taylor, 51-49
Ashvegas, I sure hope Taylor wins this one! I am counting on him helping me get back home to NC from stinky CA.
Good luck with your bets!
I’m getting a little nervous….
EM, you can deal with the Wine Market, or be first in line at GreenLife – they’ll have some, too.
You mean mailing it to them?
…kidding…
I’ve got a lot of love for the AC-T, so that’d be easy.
However, I’ll likely be reading much ScruHoo loving here on this chocolatey page.
That works for me. Guess I’d better get on the list tomorrow. Just in case. Not that Shuler’s gonna lose.
Is it the Wine Market I have to deal with?
EM, the loser buys a case of Cold Mountain Ale. How’s that?
And Screwy, one amendment – you’ll be addressing your love letter to the Asheville Citizen-Times.
Damn, I want in on the wagers.
Okay, Ashbaby, I’m wagering Shuler’s gonna win. What should the stakes be?
Guest blogging stints? Micro-brewed beer? Less feistiness for a week? Extra comment love?
Name it, dude.
Screwy, we’re on, my man.
Ash,
Nice post. I agree with you on some of your picks and disagree on others.
I’m here to make a wager on the Taylor/Shuler race. I think Shuler’s going to take it 52-48, and you’re thinking Taylor’s incumbency will carry him through to a squeaker of a win.
How about this? If Taylor wins, then I write a love letter to your blog on Scrutiny Hooligans, and if Heath wins, you write a love letter to my blog here on Ashvegas.
Are we on?