How long can John Edwards hang on?

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Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

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jedwards.jpgWashington Post
A whole lotta folks in and around Ashvegas have put money behind John Edwards’ presidential campaign. But after edging out Hillary Clinton for second place in Iowa, then finishing a disappointing third in New Hampshire, folks are starting to wonder how long the former Tar Heel senator can go. I figure he’ll be done after losing S.C.

And everybody wants to know who he’ll get behind.

The Washington Post’s Dan Balz has a sharp news analysis. As to who Edwards would support:

In a largely two-person race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, it’s clear where Edwards’s sentiments lie. If he can’t be the nominee, he strongly prefers Obama.

And as to the deeper question of Edwards’ next move:

Edwards has offended many Democrats with his candidacy. They question his authenticity and see his shift from optimism to anger as the sign of an opportunistic politician. He and his most loyal supporters argue that that’s not the case, that the Edwards of 2008 is a reflection of a changed country and his and his wife’s changed personal situation.

Edwards had hoped that a Clinton loss in New Hampshire would have effectively ended her candidacy, leaving him a chance to have a fight for the nomination with Obama over how best to change the political culture of Washington and the nation. Her victory robbed him of any real likelihood of that happening.

Clinton and Obama are committed to a fight for states and delegates through Feb. 5. After that, it’s anybody’s guess whether the race will be decided or headed for a war of attrition. But Edwards is not financially equipped to fight anything approaching a long war.

His aides always said that his only realistic hope for the nomination was to win Iowa, survive New Hampshire and then win Nevada and South Carolina. In a year that has proved prognosticators wrong, Edwards may think there is still a path for him. But against two opponents as skilled and as well-financed as Clinton and Obama, the space for an underfunded Edwards, particularly an Edwards who hasn’t won a contest, diminishes rapidly.

No candidate in the heat of a campaign can see his or her way through these questions with any clarity. They are focused on the moment — the next debate, the next ad, the next contest. That may be where Edwards is now.

But Edwards is someone who never stops thinking about strategy — and he has a remarkable ability to analyze the state of play with a clear eye. That indicates he is thinking about what happens after South Carolina. If he concludes he cannot be the nominee, what will he conclude about the role he wants to play — if any — to influence the eventual outcome? That’s why he should not be forgotten.

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

  • 1

1 Comment

  1. judgeyall January 14, 2008

    He is the only one of the candidates that is willing to go head to head with the large corporations and tackle health care the way I feel it should be done.
    I respect him for that. Unfortunetly it was just that move that possibly killed his chances.

    The media hasnt said his name, just for those two days, a few weeks back. Hell, I probably got more press…

    Reply

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