Jason Sandford
Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.
Cartoon by David Cohen. Thank you, David!
Now that I’ve had a day to absorb the results of Tuesday’s Asheville City Council primary election, I’m ready to to once again play arm-chair pundit and show once again that I probably don’t know as much as I think I do.
First, let’s get to my predictions. I correctly picked all six City Council candidates that won on Tuesday, but I was way off on my order of finish. Candidates Cecil Bothwell, Gordon Smith and Esther Manheimer finished in the top three, with Kelly Miller, Carl Mumpower and J. Neal Jackson rounding out the field. I had predicted a higher finish for Miller and a lower finish for Bothwell and Smith.
Let’s start sorting it out. The Asheville Citizen-Times reports today that Tuesday’s primary turnout was the lowest ever since the city started holding primaries for council in 1995. Bothwell had 3,718 people vote for him to finish first. That’s out of a city full of more than 64,000 registered voters.
The Citizen-Times has also reported that candidates in this year’s City Council election are raising more money than ever before. Bothwell, Smith, Manheimer and Miller have all raised substantial amounts, with Manheimer tops at more than $25,000 – so far. (Check this campaign finance reports here.)
The winning candidates are touting their efforts at building grass-roots campaigns. But are they, really, when we have the lowest primary turnout ever? How come voters aren’t more motivated to participate? I don’t have the answers here. There haven’t been any real lightning rod issues and it’s obvious that the vast majority of people didn’t think it was important to go out and vote on Tuesday.
It’s true, also, that the candidates this year are using the most sophisticated campaign techniques I’ve ever seen at the local level. There are automated calls, and legions of volunteers using carefully prepared lists to “likely voters” to knock on doors and ask people to go to the polls. One candidate sent me a text message to my cell phone during early voting, urging me to go ahead and cast my ballot. The candidates are using YouTube videos, Web pages and Facebook to connect and politick.
So why did Bothwell, Smith and Manheimer – all three newcomers to elected office and campaigning (although Bothwell ran for Buncombe County commissioner last year) – do so well?
I credit what I’m calling the “Obama effect.” Lots of Democrats are still riding high after last November’s big win. On the national level, the Obama campaign put in place a new grassroots structure that I think is now benefitting local candidates, along with the general “winner’s mentality” that’s still swirling.
Key campaign workers for Bothwell and Smith were instrumental in building this area’s Obama structure. Bruce Mulkey (for Bothwell) and David Roat (for Smith) are true experts in building strong local campaigns – they did it for Obama and they’re doing it now for their local candidates. While I don’t know the details of Manheimer’s campaign structure, I’d bet that she has similar connections.
I’m not sure why Miller didn’t show better. Perhaps his base just wasn’t motivated. Perhaps negative attacks on his campaign have been having an effect. The same might be said for Mumpower’s low showing, although I can’t help but think that his endless no-voting on council and ever-present e-mail rants may be taking a toll.
What’s next? Probably more mud-slinging. Definitely more spending. Lots of television advertising. And a concerted effort to get more people to vote. We’ll see.
We absolutely need infill and increased density to make more neighborhoods walkable and to make transit work financially. Also to make neighborhoods safer, to increase a strong sense of community and to build local businesses.
Quick: Citizens of which city have the lowest per capita energy use and lowest carbon footprint of any citizens in the U.S.?
NYC.
Those who suggest that keeping climate change in mind when considering all of the other variables in our lives is somehow tunnel-vision or a one-issue stance seem to miss the point that every decision we make has an energy cost. Everything from the toothpaste you use in the morning to the job you do, the lunch you eat, the school your kids attend, the recreation you enjoy, has a meaningful and measurable energy component. Ignoring that energy cost and its attendant pollution seems deeply unethical to me. It violates my basic philosophy – the Golden Rule.
Externalizing the pollution cost to others, whether down wind or down generation from us is not a sustainable practice. Therefore we need to create tomorrow’s economy and tomorrow’s community through today’s planning and jobs. All jobs are not equal and we have always created businesses and industries based on our values system. Real world facts are pressing us to change our value system. This isn’t about me being right, it’s about a conversation every community needs to be having in light of climate change, the end of cheap oil, the pending population explosion and our current recession.
As a reporter I am a professional listener and sorter-out of information. I hope to facilitate a conversation, not impose some preconceived plan.
Thanks for listening. Let’s keep it real.
How does Cecil feel about supporting infill instead of sprawl? Will there be incentives for investors to continue to grow downtown into what it always wanted to be?
Sprawl will kill us. and luckily it has slowed. We can help it by making a strong city center, while groups like SAHC save our mountains.
We need a balance and a plan. So art, music, creativity can survive, citizens are more healthy and safe, so local business owners can grow with the economy and not be pushed out…
We need to embrace smart development.
Thank you Tatoo for pointing out that City of Asheville deserves better on Council. I’m a lifelong Democrat and just don’t see Bothwell with any depth beyond his one, albeit important, issue.
Please God help us keep Cecil Bothwell off City Council. Cecil is a great outside agitator and truly has spoken truth to power in the past. But my observation is that his puffed-up self image and "I’m always right" attitude will make him a piss-poor city council member.
Two points I would make:
1. I have made very specific policy proposals that would increase employment in Asheville. (while noting that City government has pretty limited ability to affect employment, no matter what some politicians would have you believe) Read my Web site: http://cecilbothwell.com
2. Anyone who imagines that global climate change is not the biggest issue for every government at every level is not paying attention.
It is true that climate change may not be the biggest issue on everyone’s minds, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t the biggest issue we face. I’m not running my campaign based on what might be a popular idea, I am running in hopes of preparing our community for the real world future that the best scientific minds say we are facing. We need to prepare today for imminent changes in fuel availability, water resources and food security. Pretending that big changes are on the way is not a plan.
"Seriously Cecil – u lost my vote just now
"The good news is that we can create jobs, cut utility bills, reduce unhealthy air pollution, and reduce our dependency on imported oil."
Tell me how the hell the Asheville City council can do anything about this? Seriously there should be other major concerns specific to Asheville that should be addressed first
city council shoul be addressing Asheville’s concerns and needs (aka infrastructure)
bye bye cecil – was planning to vote for u, but ur too far gone in ur thinking"
Thank you!!! This is Asheville biggest problem right here, only a few on city council wants to think Locally, they care more about the big game which Asheville is NOT a blip on the radar.
Thank you and well put!
Going into this primary, it was obvious that all of the candidates with any chance to win in November would survive the cut. So not only did infrequent, occasional, and many regular voters sit this one out, but I imagine even many politically interested voters didn’t bother.
This left a much bigger than normal slice of the vote to the most highly motivated – folks directly reached by the candidates and their workers & volunteers.
So we’ve learned that Bothwell and Smith have a core of highly motivated supporters who will probably be able to bring out more voters in November. I thought more angry Republicans would have come out for Mumpower, but it seems he’s made too many of them angry at him. And it remanis to be seen whether the additonal money likely to come in for Miller & Manheimer will get more casual voters to the polls in November, and what impact the Cape write-in will have.
With another small turnout in store next month, Bothwell and Smith should be favored to win again, but betting on this one would be a truly dicey proposition.
It would be helpful if Cecil Bothwell addressed the number one overriding issue of interest to the voters, which are local jobs and economic recovery.
The overriding issue in the world today, and Asheville for that matter, is hardly climate change.
Please Asheville, wake up, and keep this guy from getting a seat on City Council.
Anyone But Bothwell!!!
Seriously Cecil – u lost my vote just now
"The good news is that we can create jobs, cut utility bills, reduce unhealthy air pollution, and reduce our dependency on imported oil."
Tell me how the hell the Asheville City council can do anything about this? Seriously there should be other major concerns specific to Asheville that should be addressed first
city council shoul be addressing Asheville’s concerns and needs (aka infrastructure)
bye bye cecil – was planning to vote for u, but ur too far gone in ur thinking
I too would like to see a more progressive and environmentally friendly City Council, that isn’t afraid to develop UP and for the right reason, not just for money. I’d like to see a council that pushs hard for more jobs, better infrastructure such as reliable public transportation and also one that aggressively handles the panhandling and vagrancy downtown. A creative, co-operative council that thinks for the people and works on our level. It’s often embarrassing to witness Mumpower and Mayor Bellamy sniping and bickering with each other, and I don’t blame the Mayor at all. She’s a good person who loves Asheville. I think if we could realize the schism on council, he would not be re-elected. Yes Tim, we KNOW Robin is a write-in. I’m still not voting for her. The others have worked much, much harder and perhaps won’t let their personal lives distract them as hers may. And that is merely my own opinion, and yes I love liberty and justice for all, and no I didn’t have any Kool-Aid today.
I understand that Robin Cape is running for re-election.
" . . . There is one overriding issue in the world today and that is . . ."
Get ready for confident pronouncements . . .and lots of them . . .when Bothwell is on City Council. How would many of Asheville’s voters fill in the blank in the statement, "There is one overriding issue in the world today and that is———-.?"
I wonder if one reason so few people voted is that they are being constantly told there are no defining issues in this campaign while reporting is heavily focused on who raised how much money.
There is one overriding issue in the world today and that is climate change. As climate studies reveal rising ocean temps and the major ice sheets melt at an accelerating rate, we are faced with the most difficult problem since the dawn of civilization. And the principal place it can be meaningfully addressed is at the local level, reducing our carbon footprint one home, one business, one car at a time, in sufficient numbers to scale back the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The good news is that we can create jobs, cut utility bills, reduce unhealthy air pollution, and reduce our dependency on imported oil. My campaign platform addresses ways that our citizens can voluntarily conserve and save money. Some other candidates are also taking this issue seriously. http://cecilbothwell.com
All i want is a city council that can provide better leadership – the current and past city councils have let existing infrastructure fall apart. . . while spending money on worthless traffic calming
stimulus money was allotted for sidewalks on beaverdam?? Crap sidewalks on edgewood or lakeshore would be more important and used more. Also upgrading the crappy sidewalks on merriom (not sure tele poles in the middle of the sidewalk meet ADA standards) speaking of, since the fresh market is moving into the old marcos, u think they would account for enought room to get a wheel chair in front of that addition – but no