The Official Ashvegas Election Indigestion 2008 Prediction Thread

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

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Here we are again. Another big election year, and I’m ready with predictions. Let’s clear away the zombies, peek through all the political signs, bag up the leaves and get to it. Remember, this is only my best guess. These are not endorsements, just my humble opinion of who I think will win.

11th Congressional District

Shuler/Mumpower:

Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower has run the most unorthodox campaign we’ve ever seen in Western North Carolina for the region’s top political job, the 11th Congressional District U.S. House seat now held by Health Shuler. Mumpower is the Repub, and Shuler is the Dem.

Mumpower openly called for the impeachment of President Bush and briefly suspended his campaign. He campaigned early on by sending e-mails, and he debated a cardboard cut-out of Shuler.

It’s been two short years since Shuler wrested the seat from Republican Charles Taylor, who had a virtual lock on things. But Shuler, with his blend of red conservatism and blue Democrat-ness, may be creating a model for a new political middle here. 

There’s little doubt that Shuler will win. The question is by how much. For years, the 11th district has been a battle over a small moveable middle, such that no matter who signed up to run, they were guaranteed to get 45 percent of the vote.

Mumpower’s unusual campaign, though, will cost him. I’m predicting a 60-40 old fashioned butt whuppin’, and Mumpower has nothing to blame but his principles. 

Chairman, Buncombe County Board of Commissioners

Gantt/Ramsey:

Nathan Ramsey and David Gantt are battling it out for chairman of the Buncombe County Board of Commissioners. Ramsey is the Repub and the current chairman. Gantt is the Dem and is a member of the board.

Ramsey has run a clever campaign, in which he has appealed directly to Democrats because he knows he needs their support to win. Ramsey, who started his political career as a single-issue candidate (no zoning), has matured into a hard-working, respected politician and one of the real leaders of the local party. 

Gantt got out of the gate slow, in my opinion, but got his legs under him more recently. Gantt has worked hard on land conservation issues, has advocated for land use planning and has been the only board member to admit that commissioners “screwed up” on Parkside. 

This is going to be a close, close race and in the end, I don’t see voters turning out Ramsey as chairman. 

Buncombe commissioners:

In this rather boring race, pitting four Repubs against four Dems, I don’t see a single Republican headed for victory. Holly Jones, K. Ray Bailey, Carol Peterson and Bill Stanley will all win a seat, in my view. The Republicans just haven’t made the case, and haven’t spent the money to get out their message. John Carroll, Don Yelton, Ron McKee and Mike Fryar will return to a party in serious disarray.

116th House District:

Moffitt/Whilden:

The hottest race for state House in the Asheville are is the race in the 116th District, which pits newcomer Jane Whilden against local businessman Tim Moffitt, who has been an unsuccessful political candidate in the past. Whilden is the Dem and Moffitt is the Repub.

This year, Moffitt has been raising, and spending, some cash in this Republican-leaning district. He’s been getting his word out mostly through mailers. He’s taking on a connected Whilden, who ran the governor’s western residence for a number of years. 

I think Moffitt could pull of a victory here. It would be a surprise in a mostly-Democratic political year in Buncombe County. But I’ve got a gut feeling, and I’m going with it.

U.S. Senate

Hagan/Dole:

By now, you’ve heard all you need to hear about the television ads that have been flying in this race between incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan, a state senator.

Dole went to the nasty ad because she’s down in the polls. It appears to be back-firing. Hagan, a middle-of-the-road Democrat who has worked quietly in the state legislature, has run a steady campaign and has offered up appropriate outrage at the latest tactics.

Hagan wins, and moves the Democrats close to a 60-vote majority in the Senate.

N.C. Governor

McCrory/Perdue:

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Republican in this race, has been setting the agenda in this race from the start after coming out of nowhere to win the GOP primary. Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue has been running with a sense of inevitability, and I think it’s hurt her. 

McCrory has cast Perdue as the political insider that has too much baggage. Perdue has touted her experience and made light of McCrory’s accomplishments. In this year where the word “change” has been worn thin, it sticks enough for McCrory to win in another close race.

President

McCain/Obama: 

What more is there to say? Obama wins the presidency, but North Carolina narrowly remains a red state. 

If that’s not enough, here are some more predictions:

Lt. Governor: Democrat Walter Dalton takes Repub Robert Pittenger. But does anyone really care about lieutenant governor?

115th House District: Incumbent Democrat Bruce Goforth wins easily over Republican Paul Perdue. Goforth continues to accrue power in Raleigh.

47th Senatorial District: Democrat Joe Sam Queen beats Keith Presnell, the Republican, in the typically testy campaign. Queen has the best name in area politics. Presnell has the best mustache. Joe Sam Queen? Yes Sam way.

There you have it — the official Ashvegas political forecast. So who do you think will win?