Real Clear Politics: With no challenger, Burr’s in no trouble

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

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RealClearPolitics.com has an excellent story here sizing up U.S. Sen. Richard Burr’s position heading into next year’s election. The story offers a detailed look, too, at what U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler would be up against if he decided to take on Burr.

On the fact that there’s no challenger so far:

Attorney General Roy Cooper, who won a third term in November with more votes than any other statewide candidate, had been the party favorite but announced three weeks ago he wouldn’t run.

“So far, the party has struck out with attracting a candidate who has already won state-wide office,” said John Dinan, a political scientist at Wake Forest University. “Roy Cooper’s decision against running last month was significant, as he would have been a strong challenger. But one would have to interpret his decision against running as a sign that he wasn’t sufficiently confident that Burr was vulnerable to a successful challenge and that 2010 may not be the best year for a Democratic challenger to make such a bid.”

Cooper led Burr in several polls conducted since the end of last year, as Burr’s approval ratings hovered well below 50 percent. However, even a private chat at the White House with Obama, whose influence has been felt in other states, didn’t change his mind.

On the Shuler focus:

Since Cooper’s exit, the spotlight has re-centered on Rep. Heath Shuler, who the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is rumored to be focusing on. Shuler said in March that he would not challenge Burr, but David Young, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, stirred the pot recently when he said during a radio interview in Asheville that the DSCC was actively recruiting Shuler and that he believed the congressman was reconsidering a bid for Senate.

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Attributes in Shuler’s favor are the ability to fundraise and his moderate voting record, said Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon University Poll. Shuler has been known to buck party leadership, including on the economic stimulus package, and National Journal’s 2008 vote ratings place him among the most conservative Democrats in the House.

Bacot said Burr is “more of a business conservative, instead of a moral, which resonates with the people of North Carolina.” He also attracts the large population of “business Republicans” that migrated to the state from the Northeast — independent voters who Bacot said swing the state.

“To defeat Burr, you’re going to need a conservative Democrat, and if you can get through a primary, you’re going to give him a run for his money,” Bacot said. “The majority of Democrats in North Carolina are moderate, and 25 percent are conservative Democrats — Reagan Democrats — who will vote Republican. Shuler can keep them home.”

On Burr’s strengths:

“There are no apparent ways in which Burr has rendered himself vulnerable in his first four years,” said Dinan. “Unlike Dole, who was vulnerable because of not spending time in the state and not seen as working hard enough to represent North Carolina interests, Burr has no concerns on either of these counts. His main concern is that his name recognition isn’t yet as high outside of the Piedmont area as an incumbent would prefer.”

Stepping up his visibility, Burr is leading the fight this week against a bill that would give the Food and Drug Administration the authority to regulate tobacco, which is an important piece of the state’s economy. He’s also joined forces on a health care plan with Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Reps. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) and Devin Nunes (R-Calif.).