Asheville News

Election predictions: a check-up

Jason Sandford November 9, 2005

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

So, how’d we do?

Well, Ashvegas’ spotless reputation was tarnished a little after missing the call on the Terry Bellamy-Joe Dunn race for city mayor. We obviously didn’t give enough credit to city voters, who picked Bellamy solidly over Dunn. We knew we were headed out on a limb with Dunn, who failed to ignite or connect with voters, but we thought there might be more of a backlash against Bellamy.

For council, we were spot on, picking Holly Jones, Robin Cape and Carl Mumpower.

Other local bloggers hit the nail on the proverbial head. Edgy Mama and Screwy at Scrutiny Hooligans called it all correctly, with Screwy nearly prognosticating the exact percentages. (Bellamy won 57-43 and I think Screwy was off by one percentage point.) Excellent work, you two! There’s an extra special something in that for you guys, though at this moment I don’t quite know what that could be – a News 13 WLOS Weather Spotters umbrella, perhaps?

As for RoIn and vote-watcher and others, how did you guys do? I’ve already forgotten.

Now speculation turns to who will gain the appointment to Bellamy’s vacant council seat. All indicators seem to point to fourth-place council finisher Bryan Freeborn. But you never know.

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

BELLAMY WINS

The Bellamy mandate – where will it lead?

8 Comments

RoIn November 11, 2005

<<"...the most dangerous place to be in Asheville is between Carl Mumpower and a camera." Actually, there are probably two more dangerous places: one is in his psych office, getting counseled; the other is in his car when he again decides the best way to fight the war on drugs is to go into the “projects” and buy some. >>

Good point. Now that he is going to pretty much have Council’s right plank all to himself (unlike Joe Dunn Jan Davis. A Democrat who backed Patsy Keever’s 2004 Congressional bid, will not be able to steal any of the Mumps’ thunder) I suspect that the Mump’s grandstanding and PR stunts will not only continue but get even more outlandish. Maybe instead of buying some crack he’ll take to peddling some to show “how easy it is” or perhaps light it up at a Council meeting.

Any other possibilities?

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beavis November 11, 2005

“…the most dangerous place to be in Asheville is between Carl Mumpower and a camera.”

Actually, there are probably two more dangerous places: one is in his psych office, getting counseled; the other is in his car when he again decides the best way to fight the war on drugs is to go into the “projects” and buy some.

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RoIn November 10, 2005

The Mumps may make it hard to appoint Freeborn but all he can do is engage in more sanctimonious whining (which he has down to an art form). Jones, Cape, and Newman, will be good bets to back Freeborn, and Jones can point to precedent as she voted to add the CIBO backed Jim Ellis to Council in 2001 when he finished fourth and Worely’s seat came open when he moved into the Mayor’s seat. The Mumps will be reminded of his vote to appoint Ellis as well (after refusing to commit to voting for the 4th place finisher before the election) but will do all his self righteous preaching about needed a “balance” on Council but he doesn’t have the votes and he is about to find out what it is like to have HIS concerns and opinions fall on deaf ears after four years of his passive agressive grandstanding. Jones, Cape, and Newman, might even vote for Freeborn just to annoy the Mumps. The question is, are three votes enough, or do they need 4?

Of course, In some ways it would not surprise me if he’s kind of happy about the outcome. He will have a much easier time overshadowing Jan Davis that he ever did in overshadowing Joe Dunn, as I have heard many people say that the most dangerous place to be in Asheville is between Carl Mumpower and a camera.

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vote_watcher November 9, 2005

Another point of follow-up that needs to be dissected: What about those withheld votes? The way I count it there were 7171 of them (If everyone who voted for mayor had three, that leaves 7171 unaccounted for in the city council total). Who got the cold shoulder and who got the seconds when there were no thirds? Anyone care to comment?

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Screwy Hoolie November 9, 2005

Ash,

that’s right. I’d forgotten about my spot-on percentages callin’. That’s why I make the big bucks.

I could use a couple bumper stickers, too, if you’re handing them out.

Also, will you be bringing the DunnBeenHumbled Pie to the BlogAsheville Inaugural International Giblet Olympics and Gravy Guzzler?

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Ash November 9, 2005

you got it, EM.

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vote_watcher November 9, 2005

I never got as far as a prediction. I like the mechanics over the outcome. I like to watch the way the sausage is made.

The closest I came to a prediction was with the Freeborn, Pelly, Thomson split. Thomson was respectable, utterly so, in making no alliances, but also utterly lonely down there at the bottom. I would guess he will be at the top of the list for a school board appointment (or other appointment of his choosing). Pelly underwhelmed. I think had Dunn and Mumpower not started volleying his name about in the final days he might have been even further behind at the finish. And Freeborn gave the good doctor a run for his money — ahead early on by about the same margin to which he ultimately succumbed.

Freeborn is good for the appointment. Rumor has it that the Cape & Jones folks gave him a rousing welcome when he appeared there, some chanting “Appoint Freeborn!” Precedent will make it easy. Mumpower will make it hard.

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Edgy Mama November 9, 2005

Thanks for the shout-out, Ash. Aren’t you feeling humble this morning? I’m guessing part of why you called Dunn was to make Screwy and me all indignant-sticking a little sliver of bamboo under the nails of your hippie friends.

How about another Ashvegas bumper sticker for me? I’ve only got one vehicle covered.

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