Asheville City Council election instant analysis: Now that Miller’s out, lock in Bothwell, Manheimer and Smith as winners

Jason Sandford

Jason Sandford is a reporter, writer, blogger and photographer interested in all things Asheville.

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With Asheville City Councilman Kelly Miller’s surprise announcement last week that he was withdrawing from the race for City Council, lots of folks are wondering what affect that will have on the election. Here’s my instant analysis: go ahead and lock in Cecil Bothwell, Gordon Smith and Esther Manheimer as your new council members.

Why? Because Bothwell, Smith and Manheimer were the top three vote-getters in last week’s primary, and a quick look at the last several elections will show you that the top three in the primary have gone on to win in the general election.

Why? Because Miller, outside of the top three, was the best-funded candidate. He was also an incumbent, which always helps re-election bids. Now that he’s out, I don’t see anyone edging out Bothwell, Smith or Manheimer. Incumbent Carl Mumpower has said he’s not raising or spending any significant amount of cash, and he finished below Miller in the primary voting. Incumbent Robin Cape, who decided late to seek re-election, is running a write-in campaign and I don’t see her breaking through, either.

When in the last time three total newcomers to elected office were seated on Asheville City Council? It would be interesting to go back and see if it’s ever happened. It will certainly be an exciting dynamic to watch play out, as the three newbies join Mayor Terry Bellamy and Councilmen Bill Russell, Brownie Newman and Jan Davis.

That’s my instant analysis, and my official unofficial November election picks. It’s way early, but I’m sticking with it after Miller’s remarkable announcement.