Year-end report from Asheville real estate blogger

From the avlrealest8.wordpress.com blog:

OUR RESIDENTIAL MARKET

…the current snapshot:

Active listings are DOWN 4.14% from a year ago.
Number of units under contract are DOWN 27.75%
Number of units SOLD are DOWN 20.27%

Last year, it would have taken 14.2 months to sell all of the active inventory if no new listings came on the market. January, 2011 it would take 17 months to sell all the inventory.

Keep in mind that this data includes all of Buncombe County and ALL price ranges.  If you property value is above $300,000, you may want to sit down and look at this report which breaks the properties down by price ranges:

Now let’s talk Pending Ratio.  This number is derived by applying the following formula: 

# of units UNDER CONTRACT / # of ACTIVE listings = Pending Ratio
                                                                or
                                                  276 / 2,871 = 9.6%

If you’ve read my blogs last year, I’m sure you felt the tension when I mentioned that the pending ratio had dipped below 10%.  Will all 10% actually close?  Hmmm?  NO

In a balanced market one will see pending ratios as high as 20%-30% in some price ranges.  Look at the report and see where your alleged value falls.

Ok, let’s visit with values for a minute. I really enjoy tracking the MEDIAN sales prices as averages are about as useful as Days On Market (in an aggregate picture). They can come in handy when comparing particular property sales.

Anyway, our present residential median price is down from last month to $199,000.  Exactly the same as a year ago this month. Again, these are figured on the past SIX MONTHS’ SALES.

Now let’s look at the past few years’ median SALES price which is figured from all sales within each year:

2010: $198,663
2009: $205,000
2008: $221,750
2007: $228,000
2006: $217,000
2005: $197,500

I guess the “bubble” is pretty obvious from this angle, huh?  I guess this puts our residential values right around 2005 in the aggregate picture.

Of course, the banks put a whole different perspective on things now. YES, they should make smarter loans! I do find my feathers in a ruffle when the FDIC continues the practice of selling FAILED banks to banks who STILL OWE TARP MONEY to the U.S. taxpayers!!

…

You may think I practice residential real estate by these reports, however I am a commercial/investment guy and a self-proclaimed numbers junkie.

OUR COMMERCIAL MARKET

We are seeing a lot of activity…cautious on the investor’s part, but we are seeing a lot of activity.  Many would-be purchasers are leasing instead.  Many would-be start-up businesses are not, because of lack of financing.  There are investors out here with very different comfort levels for risk.  Some are holding out for the steals (short sales & foreclosures).  Others are choosing to get into private lending, taking the banks out of the equation when possible and creating their own rates of return.  Beats the heck out of savings accounts and cd’s.  These are normally offered at a lower LTV to hedge the risks.  Other investors are buying and banking as much land as possible in certain areas and this is certainly a great time to acquire income-producing properties of most kinds IF the conditions and financing is right.