Here we go again. Ashvegas will go all the way out on the tree limb to tell you what we think will happen in the upcoming Ashvegas City Council race. Ashvegas, we’ll remind you, has an inconsistent record in this realm (Charles Taylor has yet to help said record out by announcing his candidacy), but what the heck. It’s fun.
We’ve consulted with a couple of politico friends, and we’ve digested what they’ve said. So here goes. Don’t be afraid to tell us what you think.
As usual, the run-up to the primary has been incredibly quiet. Does anybody out there really care? Is anyone really paying attention? It appears not. Brownie Newman handed out a few light bulbs last weekend, and we received mailers from Brownie and Freebie Freeborn. But that’s been about it.
All that leads us to predict an incredibly low voter turnout for the primary. That’s not such a daring prediction, given the turnouts for the past couple of primary elections. But stick with us.
So we’ll have an embarrassingly low turnout for the Oct. 9 election. And that will mean something important for one newcomer who’s trying to shake things up. Here’s who will win the primary, and here’s the order they’ll finish in:
Brownie Newman
Elaine Lite
Jan Davis
Bryan Freeborn
Dwight Butner
Bill Russell
The order of finish in the primary is important, because historically, the top three finishers in the primary will be your winners in November. This may not be the case this year. But more on that in a minute.
If you’ll look closely, you’ll see that we’re predicting that newcomer Elaine Lite will finish second only to Brownie Newman, who is a lock to be number one. With a low turnout and an energized base, Lite will finish strong. And this will surprise Bryan Freeborn, who has yet to win an election. (He was appointed to his seat, as you’ll recall.)
Freeborn’s people will get to work after this surprise, and Freeborn and Lite will be battling out for that third seat, as Newman and Jan Davis will walk to re-election.
We’re not sure yet who to pick between Freeborn and Lite. Both have strong bases, and Newman is quietly telling people to vote for Freeborn, who has been a key fourth vote on a split council. We’ll make this call once we get to the November election.
So there you have it.
7 Comments
keep dreamin’, Freebornista…
Wow. Some predictions. It is hard to imagine that Freeborn will not do well in the Primary. I see only support in the community for him and Brownie. Most people I talk to about council love him. Notice how all the cool stuff that people like that the city has done happened since he got on council.
The only people that have problems with him are haters like A to the P. Widen your circle.
Prediction: Voters go to the polls and cast a vote for Freeborn and then for Newman. They look at the rest of the crowd, scratch their head, and decide to call it a day.
Bryan will be crushed is my prediction.
People are still bitter about the whole "independent primary" thing, and seeing that on the same ballot will re-ignite that bitter taste.
Brownie will probably survive fairly safe…but freeborn, as the youngest, and most publically inept councilman will take the brunt of the anger.
I don’t know what it is, but Freeborn awalys seems to get in over his head. If he’s not throwing hissy fits in council meetings, he’s being left behind by the speakers and other councilman.
He just doesn’t seem to have any idea what he’s doing, which is why he will get all the negative attention for the primary blunder, while Brownie walks away scot free
Paul, we shall see…
Gordon, thanks for your picks. Right now, i think it’s too close to call for that third spot.
edward, all it means is that Holly and Brownie are friends.
I got one of those free Brownie light bulbs last week, delivered by none other than Holly Jones. Years ago, the Asheville Disclaimer described her as "cute as a button," and now I believe it. But what does it mean when one council person delivers the light bulbs for another?
Ash,
Nice post. Here’s my top six prediction:
Brownie Newman
Jan Davis
Elaine Lite
Bryan Freeborn
Selena Sullivan
Dwight Butner
Selena’s been campaigning really hard.
I’d like to see Brownie, Elaine, and Bryan win seats, and that may happen. It comes down to whether the non-progressives show up to the polls. With the attention paid to the partisan election controversy, you can count on some protest votes, so here’s my guess:
Brownie Newman
Jan Davis
Elaine Lite
I really hope Freeborn gets to hold on to his seat. He’s been a strong advocate for public transit, and he consistently votes for smart development policies.