Yup. Here we go again.
Ashvegas is here to tell you folks like it is. We’ll start with the usual disclaimer: what follows is simply a prediction. A look into the future. What we think will happen. It’s not an endorsement.
Ashvegas has struggled mightily with this one. We correctly told you who would pass from the primary into the general election, and we almost had the order the six finished correct. Not really difficult to guess.
Now, though, we find ourselves sorting through the hype, the political ads and the piles of campaign cash to try and zero in on what the voters are thinking. The key question for us – will there be an upset on Election Night? And we keep coming back to the same answer – no. But it’s going to be damn close.
Councilmen Jan Davis, Brownie Newman and Bryan Freeborn will all win re-election on Tuesday. That’s despite a strong early challenge by newcomer Elaine Lite and a stronger late challenge by newcomer Bill Russell.
We said after the primary that Russell would be the one to watch, and we still believe that. He could certainly pull an upset. But we think Freeborn, the candidate on the bubble, will squeak by with a win in the end.
Why? Freeborn’s name recognition strength and the fact that he’ll be riding on the coattails of Newman, who has been helping him along. Russell hasn’t done quite enough to pull himself over the top, in our view.
And on the referendum question, voters will choose to go back to partisan elections, despite the Let Asheville Vote group that got the referendum on the ballot this summer.
There you have it. We’ll see what happens on Tuesday.
14 Comments
Aside from flopping the last 2, I think I won this guessing game.
Point well taken ‘NO MORE’:
Some know me by my other posts….on the media…and others …on matters of interest involving the protection of our natural world…and still others know me for my 40 years as a serious student of American Culture & Music. My post might have been ‘off-topic’ to you….but that is the nature of the blogosphere.
You seem to believe that a discussion about elections must only be the province of ‘registered voters or property owners’ in any given jurisdiction. That is an interesting take on blogging and
our precious First Amendment….but I certainly recognize your right to feel the way you feel and say what ever you wish to say.
I certainly do not expect you to care that I worked in the city of Asheville…and have stayed involved in the local community…or that I am within the ‘same local media sphere’….or that I have worked on a half dozen congressional & gubernatorial campaigns…or that long ago I was a very active member of what is now a political party without much of a conscience or heart …and is an organization which has lost it’s way …and has turned away from it’s former beliefs in fiscal responsibility,honesty and transparency. It is now rife with fat cats who seem to be in favor of development at the cost of the further destruction of our precious and unique Southern Appalachian biosphere.
The fact that many of this same bunch of Republicans spout destructive and divisive clap trap nationally…and provide aid and comfort to this nation’s most incompetent and clueless chief executive …is further proof that the ‘blind are lead by the blind’…..and heartlessness abounds in the ‘holier-than -thou’ GOP of 2007.
Twain – Independent, Libertarian, Historian, Writer,Conservationist & American …but not a ‘fake liberal’.
Here’s my take on the candidates:
Elaine Lite: http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us/?p=4350
Brownie Newman: http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us/?p=4322
Bryan Freeborn: http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us/?p=4341
The three real estate candidates: http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us/?p=4208
Ok writer who owns a home in Buncombe County (outside of Asheville) and who lives on the other side of the highest mountain in eastern America from Asheville. We’ll be sure to keep your studied thoughts on the welfare of Asheville’s residents and environment front in mind when we vote tomorrow.
Most political commentary in Asheville (and nowhere near it, it seems, but about Asheville) is about the writers’ ambivalence about Asheville becoming a city, or being a city. This while the same writers often express pride about Asheville being Paris of the South. Guess what, Seekers of Cabin in the Woods, Paris is a City. Why the intense anxiety about Asheville becoming a City. We don’t have to be [fill in the nearest large city you hate]. We can be a good, even great city. But to be so, we have to care about the workers and their children as much as we care about our view of the mountains.
Russell has a lot of money support, but not enough votes or name recognition to win. I had the closest predictoin of the primary results. I predicted who the top three would be. I did get the order wrong. I predict that I will be right again. Here it is:
1. Newman, His base is strong and remembers to vote.
2. Davis, He has a strong base, but will see back lash from "anti-development" crowd.
3. Freeborn, Young and west asheville voters will turn out much stronger in the general than in the primary which will help him. Freeborn will also get a boost from Newman’s votes.
4. Russell, There are just only so many people that will vote for a guy who has nothing to say."I am pro environment and pro growth." Give me a break. Who let him put that on a mailer. People see through that BS.
5. Lite, People will abandon her in the voting booth scared that they may loose the two seats they already have on council. Plus, she never was able to diversify her message.
6. Butner, Well enough said.
The top two will blow out everyone else. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th slot will be within a 1,000 vote spread. Butner will come now where close. He has gotten all the votes there are for him to get. He is the Keith Thompson of the "development growd"
Gordon…..I have spent 20 hours in the past 5 days..trying to find WISDOM in this crackling & cackling WNC blogosphere. You, sir, win my prize as "MOST WORTHY OF ATTENTION".
I am a Buncombe County home owner…(since 1990….1/4 mile from Mills Gaps Roads ‘CTS’ brown field …eghad!)….and actually live up on the ‘far side’ of Mount Mitchell…in Mitchell County. (50 miles from my old favorite LOCAL restaurant <God Bless You Tom Kearns!…Rio Burrito.)…so I can not vote in tomorrow’s vital Asheville city council election.
And …while I try to ‘only’ spend 12 hours a day on line …and ‘only’ read bits and bytes of eight national newspapers … (NYT, WP, LAT, AJ-C, CTribune,, OSentinel, MHerald, USAToday..et al.) …and ‘only’ watch or read News13,CNN,BBC, and …even on occasion….some stuff generated from ‘Rupert’s Audio-Visual Outhouse’…I regularly read AC-T & MX (are they insane??? …FIRING CECIL BOTHWELL ???? That one just STUNS ME!) …online …I rely upon THREE MAJOR BLOG CENTERS beyond topix.net… ashvegas, scrutinyhooligans & Cecil’s ever changing and evolving: bothwellsblog….for my ‘TRUTH IN ASHEVILLE MEDIA (really) MATTERS!’ heart & soul.
I am NOT afraid to admit …I augment my wpvm.org listening with GENEROUS AMOUNTS of 97.9,99.9,& 103.7 ….all ‘Country Mega-Stations’… (Tri-Cities, Asheville, & Charlotte)…and GREAT L.D.DRIVER’S AIDS…..and also freely admit to ‘balancing my REAL LIFE’ with the three major television networks …(CBS Sunday Morning is, even without N.C. native-son Charles Kuralt …THE BEST 90 minutes on the ‘traditional network’ airwaves)…and, yes…I watch & read ESPN …a lot …and am a TWC ‘weather nerd’ …and,yes, I am a devotee of Stephen Colbert (TRUTHINESS RULEZ!)…and Jon Stewart…..and,well, <sigh> I just love to SHUT DOWN ALL MEDIA…and drive on the BRP…or walk in ‘our’ WNC forests or in ‘my’ woods…and listen to ‘WGOD’.
I have posted all this ‘personal’ stuff…because….WE ARE ALL ONE…and…all things considered…I’d love EVERYONE to take three very deep long breaths …and…do three itty-bitty teeny-tiny little things:
1.) Pray
2.) Think
3.) VOTE …..to protect our NATURAL RESOURCES & STOP THE ‘Atlanta/Charlotte/Orlando-ization’ of Asheville.
It should be obvious WHICH ‘slate’ WILL & WHO WON’T put NATURE & LOCAL
FLORA & FAUNA FIRST. (Hint: follow GORDON’s PREFERENCES…and not his PREDICTIONS)
For my part……I will add a ‘dangerous and radical fringe’ link..for those of you out there that have 5 minutes & $50 …& might see 2027 as what it is …..LESS THAN 20 years from RIGHT NOW.
nature.org
Thanx Ash…you, like Gordon & Cecil … are a true …
FIRST AMENDMENT PATRIOT.
-Twain …..trying to keep my MacBook ‘Cool’ & cyber-ink powder ‘Dry’….up in The Northern Mountains 🙂
-30-
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I’m going with
Newman
Davis
Freeborn
Lite
Russell
Butner
I’d prefer:
Newman
Freeborn
Lite
Davis
Butner
Russell
OK — here’s my cracked crystal ball:
Jan and Brownie skate back to the dais.
Freeborn comes in fourth Tuesday, again.
Russell’s supporters will push him to a white-knuckle win over the appointed incumbent, garnering him third place and a seat on the council.
Lite will be fifth.
Butner finishes last.
When it comes time to replace Holly Jones, all bets are off on the fourth highest vote-getter. It’s not in the city charter and therefore the board can appoint whomever the majority chooses. It will be at that time that Lite has her best chance for appointment, as some will say that Freeborn has had his chance already.
It’s so much fun to prognosticate when I don’t have money riding on anything…
Can’t wait to see what happens tomorrow!
1. Newman
2. Davis
3. Freeborn
4. Russell
When Holly Jones leaves to run for county commissioner, the board will appoint Russell, because of the precenent-setting two previous times appointments have gone to the fourth-highest vote getter in the general election.
1. Davis
2. Newman
3. Russell
———-
4. Lite
5. Freeborn
6. Butner
(Upon the departure of Jones, Butner will be appointed by the majority of Mumpower, Davis, Bellamy and Russell.)
Gordon, Bill Russell will be fourth.
My prediction is that Bill Russell will pull an upset and that elections will remain non-partisan. Brownie Newman has even said that he thinks they will remain that way, but we’ll see when the votes are tallied…
Hey, I’ve got a math question for any brilliant bloggers who are poring over campaign reports.
If you took all of Elaine Lite’s "Stop Overdevelopment" signs (after collecting them from upper middle class neighborhoods all over Asheville), and put them together into one huge green and white "Stop Overdevelopment" sign, how would its size compare with the Staples sign or the future Ellington building facade?
Remember, area equals length times width. I’m guessing you could go to Elaine’s campaign reports to see how much she paid for her signs, then check with the company where she bought them and see how many signs of that type can be purchased with that much money. Of course you would have to measure one of her signs, and the Staples sign. Or, just call up Elaine and ask her the size of each.
The first one to submit a convincing answer wins a $50 gift certificate from, where else, Staples.
That Was Easy.
You think the partisan election will pass? Huh.
I’m a supporter of partisan elections, and I don’t think they’ll pass. Any referendum with the word partisan in it and the word no underneath it isn’t going to pass.
As to your other prediction. Who do you think will come in fourth? If Holly Jones decides to run for County Commission it will matter quite a lot who gets fourth.
It’s going to be a squeaker.