Anything can happen, right? Here’s what the Southern Political Report says:
In any given election, only a fraction of the 435 US House seats on the ballot have a real prospect of changing hands from one party to the other. This year some 21 of the South’s 162 congressional seats are more or less “in play,” 12 of them currently held by Republicans, 9 by Democrats.
Due to such factors as a strong tide against the party in power and the ability of probable Democratic nominee Barack Obama to bring out an unusually large turn-out among African Americans and young voters, Democrats stand the better chance of making gains this fall. This was demonstrated in the Democratic victories in recent special elections in Louisiana 6 and Mississippi 1, both districts with strong Republican voting histories, suggesting that earlier assumptions about what constitutes a “safe Republican” seat need to be revised.
However, there is also the possibility that Obama will run very poorly in some Southern states, giving the GOP an extra boost in some congressional races. Here are thumb-nail descriptions of the districts that, at this point, are likely to be competitive in November.
Here, I’ve just pulled out the NC races listed:
Republican Seats that Democrats Might Win
North Carolina 3 (Greenville, etc.)
A divisive primary hurt antiwar US Rep. Walter Jones ®, and Democrat Craig Weber has high name ID from his stint as a TV meteorologist; moreover, the Democratic Primary turnout here was high.
North Carolina 8 (Concord, etc.)
US Rep. Robin Hayes ® squeaked by with 50.2% in ’06; challenger Larry Kissell (D), while still slow on fundraising, has a strong partisan wind at his back.
Democratic Seats Where the GOP Has a Shot
North Carolina 11 (Asheville, etc.)
If the Appalachian Democrats turn to the GOP in reaction to Obama’s candidacy, then Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower ® might have a chance against freshman Heath Shuler (D), who, however, gets good marks — and money — for a first termer.