News was made on Local Edge Radio 880 AM on Friday. I was sitting in with the show hosts, Blake and Lesley, when David Young, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, called in to chat. The hot topic was whether U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler would run decide to take on U.S. Sen. Richard Burr in next year’s election.
Young confirmed what’s been flying around for about a week: that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee officials have been going after Shuler hard. Young said “my gut tells me” that Shuler is looking at it. (Correction here: I had written that Young said he thought Shuler would run, but he didn’t go that far. He said simply that Shuler is considering it again. You can go to the Local Edge Radio 880 podcast and hear what Young said.)
Wow. That would be a stunning reversal from March, when Shuler quelled growing speculation by coming out and stating clearly that he had no intention whatsoever of taking on Burr. Burr’s approval ratings have been down, and after N.C. State Sen. Kay Hagan whipped U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole last year, and North Carolina as a state going narrowly Democratic for Obama in the presidential race, national Dems are chomping at the bit to build on the success.
What set this all off was N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper announcing about a week ago that he would not take on Burr. Who else might be a candidate? Bob Etheridge, a House member from N.C.’s 11th district, Richard Moore, who lost a bid for governor last year and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, who hails from Rutherford County. Politicker.com has been keeping up with a lot of this.
Shuler is one attractive candidate. He’s a former professional football player. He’s a family man. Politically, he loves guns, hates deficit spending, and wants to do right by the environment.
Back in March, Shuler said he really doesn’t want to take more time away from his family. All politicians say that, but in Shuler’s case, I believe him. He’s got two cute kids, Island and Navy (yes, that’s their names) and he genuinely loves his time in the mountains. Launching a statewide run for senate would be a huge challenge and require and immense investment of time and energy.
Shuler needs to make a decision once and for all soon. If Young’s gut is right and he’s in, he needs to start assembling a campaign and making an announcement now might help scare off other would-be primary contenders. Back before Shuler announced he would not run for senate, a Raleigh fundraiser was held for him and it was, by all accounts, a big success. Former President Bill Clinton showed up to support him, as I recall.
The other interesting move that’s been reported, but as far as I can tell has yet to be confirmed, is that Andrew Whalen, Shuler’s former communications director and campaign manager, is now working as executive director of the North Carolina Democratic Party. Pretty darn strategic move, if Shuler is to change his mind and run for Senate.
If Shuler does run for Senate, think of all the candidates that will be jockeying to run for his open House seat. Ours is a swing district, with Shuler in his second term after up-ending 16-year incumbent Charles Taylor. If Shuler goes for the senate, you know national Republicans will be pouring money into our district to try and win that House seat back.
If Shuler does not run for Senate, a raft of candidates on both sides will be lining up to run.
So, what do you think — is Shuler in, out and back in?
3 Comments
If Shuler does run, he’ll need to change his position on Lumbee tribal recognition, or he can forget it. No Senator since Jesse Helms has been willing to oppose their recognition. With 50,000 members, I don’t see this bloc being ignored, and if he does keep his position, I think it would hurt his chances, especially in and around Robseon County. As a Representative, he can get away with opposing their recognition because the Eastern Cherokee are the only ones who even care about this issue.
I think Cooper not running has made the office much more attractive to Shuler. Just a guess, but Shuler is much more ambitious than his "Aw Shucks" demeanor would suggest. He’s working the angles- from my on the ground perspective. That doesn’t mean that I don’t think he would be in way over his head- a Blue Dog Rep does not equate with his being ready for the big(ger) show. (I’ve watched the excruciating videos of his subcommittee videos. Painful- he may be a football player, but the man is not a public speaker, and I’m not convinced he can work in public policy beyond DINO talkiing points- makes me crazy) This will be interesting to watch. I must say that I’m a bit astounded that there hasn’t been a more strategic approach from Dems to capture Burr’s seat- he has been incredibly ineffective. He’s a target, so who is going to fill his seat and why haven’t Dems been thinking about this?
I hope not he is way to conservative for a NC dem. I live in Greensboro by the way.